Comparing a friendly to a league game
In this experiment I wished to compare a friendly and a league game with the same match odds to see if I could determine just what effect competition reputation plays in the reputation equation. To achieve this I played a friendly against my first league opponent just one week before the season started. Here are the data from the two matches:
Game1
Randaberg (Player, Rep 3025, Home) VS Modum (Player, Rep 2416, away),
Friendly game
Player manager1 (Randaberg) reputation: Home: 3250, Current: 3250, World: 1625
Player manager2 (Modum) reputation: Home: 2631, Current: 2609, World: 1266
Match odds: Randaberg: 4-6 (
Fav), Draw: 9-4, Modum: 7-2
Randaberg 7-0 Modum, Manager 1: +2,+2, 0. Manager 2: -5,-5,-1.
Randaberg 9-5 Modum, Manager 1: +1,+1, 0. Manager 2: No Change. (Modum 2 red)
Randaberg 5-1 Modum, Manager 1: +3,+3, 0. Manager 2: -2,-2,-1.
Randaberg 6-3 Modum, Manager 1: +1,+1, 0. Manager 2: No Change.
Randaberg 5-4 Modum, Manager 1: No Change Manager 2: No Change.
Randaberg 3-2 Modum, Manager 1: No Change Manager 2: No Change.
Randaberg 2-1 Modum, Manager 1: No Change Manager 2: No Change.
Randaberg 1-0 Modum, Manager 1: No Change Manager 2: No Change.
Randaberg 1-1 Modum, Manager 1: -2,-2,-1. Manager 2: +1,+1, 0.
Randaberg 0-1 Modum, Manager 1: -4,-4,-1. Manager 2: +4,+4, 0.
Randaberg 1-2 Modum, Manager 1: -4,-4,-1. Manager 2: +5,+5, 0.
Randaberg 2-3 Modum, Manager 1: -5,-5,-1. Manager 2: +5,+5, 0.
Randaberg 0-2 Modum, Manager 1: -8,-8,-1. Manager 2: +7,+7, 0.
Randaberg 1-5 Modum, Manager 1: -8,-8,-1. Manager 2: +7,+7, 0.
Game2
Randaberg (Computer, Rep 3025, Home) VS Modum (Player, Rep 2416, away),
Norwegian first division (rep 7)
Computer manager1 (Randaberg) reputation: Home: 3236, Current: 3236, World: 1657
Player manager2 (Modum) reputation: Home: 2636, Current: 2614, World: 1266
Match odds: Randaberg: 4-6 (
Fav), Draw: 9-4, Modum: 7-2
Randaberg 7-0 Modum, Manager 1: +5,+5,+2. Manager 2:-10,-10,-2.
Randaberg 7-2 Modum, Manager 1: +4,+4,+2. Manager 2: -6,-6,-1.
Randaberg 4-0 Modum, Manager 1: +3,+3,+2. Manager 2: -1,-1,+2.
Randaberg 2-0 Modum, Manager 1: 0, 0,+1. Manager 2: 0, 0,+3.
Randaberg 2-0 Modum, Manager 1: +1,+1,+1. Manager 2: 0, 0,+3.
Randaberg 3-2 Modum, Manager 1: 0, 0,+1. Manager 2: 0, 0,+3.
Randaberg 2-1 Modum, Manager 1: 0, 0,+1. Manager 2: 0, 0,+3.
Randaberg 1-0 Modum, Manager 1: 0, 0, 0. Manager 2: 0, 0,+3.
Randaberg 0-0 Modum, Manager 1: -2,-2,+1. Manager 2: +4,+4,+4.
Randaberg 2-3 Modum, Manager 1: -9,-9, 0. Manager 2: +10,+10,+4.
Randaberg 2-3 Modum, Manager 1:-11,-11,-1.Manager 2: +11,+11,+4.
Randaberg 0-2 Modum, Manager 1:-14,-14,-1.Manager 2: +16,+16,+4.
Randaberg 1-3 Modum, Manager 1:-15,-15,-1.Manager 2: +14,+14,+4.
Notice that the match odds of the two games are equal and that the game is played in the same arena both times, so the only changed factor between these matches are the competition (Friendly, rep 1, VS. Norwegian First Division, rep 7). Competition reputation definitely has an effect, as the reputation changes are significantly bigger in the league game and the limit to the reputation change size is higher. Just how the reputation factors into the equation however is difficult to say. It's not a simple multiplication or addition to the numbers from the friendlies, but simple graph analysis of the numbers do suggest that it multiplies the result in some way. The size of the changes seem to rise exponentially the more unlikely the result, whereas the most likely results see no change from competition rep.
These observations refer to the variables Home and Current rep in this case, World rep is a chapter to itself. As I have noted before world rep can only change negatively from friendlies, and only marginally at that. This does not hold true for league games apparently, it was in fact very difficult for the Modum manager not to increase his world rep, as he had to lose by at least 5 goals not to do so. I will not speculate too much why this is at this point, but it seems like it is enough just to play against a more reputable team to gain reputation. Furthermore it is becoming clearer and clearer that there is another factor in the equation besides Comp rep, goal difference and odds. This factor does not seem to be of critical importance, as it has only accounted for differences of max 2 points so far, but it becomes very difficult to analyze the data until it is identified.