retired_joannalaw

Hypothesis 4 is updated based on the following data:

Reputation changes from friendly matches

For this experiment I played a friendly match at home with Modum (Rep 2185) against the third best Norwegian team Brann (Rep 5554), the match odds were 9-1 (home), 4-1 (even) and 1-4 (away) in favor of Brann.

I found that the following results gave me the following changes in reputation afterwards (Sorted by goal difference):

Modum 5 - 1 Brann, +7 Home rep, +7 Current rep, no change for world rep.
Modum 2 - 2 Brann, +2 Home rep, +2 Current rep, no change for world rep.
Modum 2 - 3 Brann, No change
Modum 0 - 2 Brann, No change
Modum 0 - 4 Brann, -1 Home rep, -1 current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 1 - 6 Brann -2 Home rep, -2 Current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 0 - 6 Brann, -3 Home rep, -3 Current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 0 - 10 Brann, -7 Home rep, -7 Current rep, -1 World rep.

From these data I draw that the game predicts the favorite to win by a certain goal difference and sets a threshold there. If the favorite wins by this threshold or less nothing happens, if the difference is greater the manager of the favorite team gains reputation points at the cost of the other manager. Each goal the result differs from the predicted threshold represents either 1 point gained or one point lost for each of the managers (unless the favorite wins, which seems to prevent gain for the other manager). In this case the threshold seems to be between 2 or 3 goals in favor of Brann. Why two thresholds and not one? It's tempting to guess that the game calculates the difference by dividing the reputation of the favorite club with the oppositions reputation. In this case that would mean 5554/2185 which equals 2.54, as you can see quite in the middle of 2 or 3 goals.

This equation does not incorporate home advantage though, so the equation might have more to do with the odds, but then again you would usually play roughly as many home as away matches during a season so it should even out in the long run. 4-1 in favor of Brann is a margin of three goals, but that doesn't explain why a 2 goal margin would be counted as a no change score. More data will be required to fine tune the equation. But for now a seemingly satisfactory equation could be "Predicted goal difference" - "Actual goal difference" = "change in reputation." Given the win is greater than predicted for the favorite, or the outcome (Win, draw loss) better than predicted for the opposition. If this number is positive the favorite manager would lose this much reputation, if it's negative he would gain this much reputation. The opposite holds true for the other manager. This equation predicts that if a draw is the favored result either manager would gain or lose the goal difference as if the equation had no given condition.

World reputation behaves unlike the other two variables, but I'll leave it until I get more of an idea what it does.

If you let your assistant handle the match you get no change to reputation.

retired_joannalaw

Update to hypothesis 4:

Hypothesis 4. Reputation can change from match to match, depending on result and opposition. (Verified, preliminary equation)

Preliminary equation: "Predicted goal difference" - "Actual goal difference" = "change in reputation" Given the win is greater than predicted for the favorite, or the outcome (Win, draw loss) better than predicted for the opposition.

I have done some testing on this and reputation can indeed change after a single match, magnitude of change depends on result and opposition. I also have to retract my previous statement about friendlies not affecting reputation as my data have proven that they can indeed significantly affect manager reputation (though not club reputation). If you let your assistant handle the match it has no effect on your reputation. I have not yet had a chance to test this in a league, so if anybody does it before me please post results here so we can compare data. You need to include the reputation of both teams and the betting odds of the match, In addition to manager reputation variables of course.

retired_morren

would be interesting to see if the equation changes depending on the competion the team is playing in aswell.

retired_joannalaw

Could well be, time will tell.

retired_joannalaw

Hypothesis 4 is updated based on the following data:

Reputation Changes over time

For this experiment I created 3 unemployed Malaysian managers, one with International reputation, 70 yers old, one with professional reputation, 50 years old and one with semi-professional reputation, 30 years old. I had only the three spanish leagues running to make this go faster.

Immediately after creation I sent all three of them on a 5 year long holiday and let the game alone to work it's way through the years. After five years I checked their reputation values in FMM and the results were unanimous. Time alone does not change reputation. This is given that going on holiday does not make you immune to reputation change. I could not see why it logically would.

So I would say it's safe to falsify hypothesis 6, based on these data.

retired_joannalaw

Update to hypothesis 6:

Hypothesis 6. Reputation declines over time. (Falsified)

Testing has shown that time alone does not change reputation at all over a time period of five years. The only thing that's still uncertain is whether going on holiday makes you immune to reputation change, but pending data that proves this is so I declare this hypothesis falsified.

retired_joannalaw

New hypothesis.

Hypothesis 7. If team A is predicted to win by x to the power of y (like 4-1), then A is predicted to win by x/y-1 goals.

Shouldn't be to difficult to test if this equation holds true. You just need to check several games for predicted goal difference and see if this threshold was predicted by the equation.

The beauty of this equation is that it will allow you to predict the needed match outcomes for your reputation to change based on given match odds.

retired_morren

supposed to be 6 i take it.

i was suprised at this one, i thought if you were off the scene for a while rep would go down. well not a really well known manager like say fergie or wenger but someone lesser known would become unknown after a 5 years with out a job

retired_joannalaw

You are correct of course, a little typo there. It might have made sense in real life if reputation diminished over time, but I suspect SI found it was unnecessary to add this feature to the game, as you will rarely go long periods of time in the game without a job.

retired_joannalaw

Update to Hypothesis 7. (Pending new equation)

After more deliberation I have come to the conclusion that the predicted goal difference can not be calculated as simply as "If A is predicted to win by x to the power of y (like 4-1), then A is predicted to win by x/y-1 goals.". I failed to recognize the simple fact that 2-1 is considered more certain odds than 4-1, which invalidates my equation. I'll experiment a little to see if I can come up with a new equation. Stay tuned.