Mechanics of Manager Reputation

retired_joannalaw · 06-28-2008, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
Here is the stats for the African Cup of Nations (rep 13).

Before the tournament I had 3107, 3872, 2704. I actually went on to win the whole thing so only did a reload of the final to check what happened if I lost and to confirm if the rep increase for losers still holds. The numbers in parantesis is the increase from game to game.

4-1 Togo --> 3268, 3923, 2959 (+161, +51, +255)

3-2 Ghana --> 3368, 3929, 3127 (+100, +0, +168)

2-0 South Africa --> 3456, 3937, 3270 (+88, +8, +143)

QF 2-0 Ivory Coast --> 3547, 3959, 3407 (+91, +22, +137)

SF 1-0 Marocco --> 3581, 3959, 3470 (+34, 0, +63)

Final (win) 1-0 Ghana --> 5066, 5233, 5024 (+1485, +1274, +1554)

Final (loss) 3-4 Ghana --> 4480, 4721, 4419 (+899, +762, +949)

So the total increase in the tournament for a win was 1959, 1361, 2320. Although the the final was worth approx 3/4 (win) or 2/3 (loss) of the total value so thats the key really.

However, note the massive increases in World Rep over the first few games so just doing well there was very valuable. Seems like either that its relative to your current rep level or that the results from the score is greatly magnified (i.e. the 4-1 win margin makes for a much larger increase). Looking at the reps of the teams I played this seems likely and confirms the previous connection to odds.

First of all, great work ZJ! I haven`t made frequent contributions lately, partly because I just got a new job but mostly because i have discovered "Mass Effect". I am only a couple of games away from finishing my second season with Heartlepool however so a big update is just around the corner.

I note several things in these data.

1. Current rep increases from matches alone are close to negligible compared with Home and World.

2. World rep sees huge increases from matches, which makes sense for international games.

3. International match increases are less regular than domestic ones.

4. My observation that you have to reach the final to get a rep boost is confirmed.

5. Greater results are linked with greater increases in rep, which supports the odds theory.

6. Up and coming managers should definitely try to get an international job as soon as possible!

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
According to Morridins experience in his league cup combined with the African cup results, it seems like a place in the final means you will get a rep boost (a relatively big one), no matter if the tournament if international or domestic.

Indeed. All leagues I have played or seen data from, so far, follows this pattern.

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
However, for leagues it seems to be slightly different. A promotion will get you a rep boost, but finishing just outside that will basically only get you a minor increase (around 50-150). It also seems like becoming Champions gives a much larger increase than a 2nd place promotion when compared to cups, i.e. the runners up in a cup get about 50-60% of what the winner gets, but in leagues the other promoted teams will only get around 20-30% of the team that won the league, sometimes even less than 10%.

Do we actually have any numbers for finishing second? I know I have none.

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
It seems to confirm that moving around indeed increased your world rep, as it should and that it helps, I just changed clubs myself so I'll see if I notice that as well.

Hm, it`s logical that your world rep would increase faster when you play with a foreign club. I have not seen this pattern in my game though. Playing in England I have actually seen rep increases distributed very differently from when i played in Norway. The numbers will come later, but suffice to say that winning a league in Norway gave me increases in a 2,2,1 pattern, while winning in England gave me increases of a 1,2,1 pattern. I will make some data comparisons when I finish my season.

Your last post deserves it`s own response post, but first I have to do a little work. Stay tuned!

retired_florentino · 06-28-2008, 10:24 PM

Morridin, based on the first page of posts I'd suggest that both the reputation changes and pre-match odds are calculated according to the ELO ranking system.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

The differences in value depending on what competition you play in, or the relative value of the match would be attributed to a different K-factor (a weighting variable for want of a better term).

retired_bradp · 06-28-2008, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Do we actually have any numbers for finishing second? I know I have none.

yeah, I finished 2nd in the Russian 2nd Div, I've also checked the rep increases for the promoted teams from Russian Div 2 to Premier while I was playing and that patterns held mostly true (think there is some weighing regarding relative rep involved as well). Don't think I've mentioned this before in any post, just some of the random things I check while playing

Interesting regarding the increase pattern, I'll be sure to look at that now that I'm on a new team.

/Z

retired_isooze · 06-28-2008, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
I got Cameroon, and no I wasn't unemployed. Basically all of a sudden a bunch of International jobs came up and I applied to them and got one. Keep your eyes open after the African Cup of Nations and WQ/Euro qualifiers as a couple is usually fired then.

Interesting that because I have been applying for African international jobs.

I wonder if it is somehow easier to get one of these jobs if you are unemployed? Doesn't seem likely, but still?

C.

retired_isooze · 06-28-2008, 11:24 PM

By the way, great work ZJ and Morridin - really interesting points!

C.

retired_joannalaw · 06-29-2008, 02:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DaveRH:
Morridin, based on the first page of posts I'd suggest that both the reputation changes and pre-match odds are calculated according to the ELO ranking system.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

The differences in value depending on what competition you play in, or the relative value of the match would be attributed to a different K-factor (a weighting variable for want of a better term).

Interesting theory DaveRH. Do you have any reason to believe that FMM08 use this system other than the seemingly convergence of numbers?

retired_florentino · 06-29-2008, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Morridin:
Interesting theory DaveRH. Do you have any reason to believe that FMM08 use this system other than the seemingly convergence of numbers?

Quote:

Modum 5 - 1 Brann, +7 Home rep, +7 Current rep, no change for world rep.
Modum 2 - 2 Brann, +2 Home rep, +2 Current rep, no change for world rep.
Modum 2 - 3 Brann, No change
Modum 0 - 2 Brann, No change
Modum 0 - 4 Brann, -1 Home rep, -1 current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 1 - 6 Brann -2 Home rep, -2 Current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 0 - 6 Brann, -3 Home rep, -3 Current rep, -1 World rep.
Modum 0 - 10 Brann, -7 Home rep, -7 Current rep, -1 World rep.

From these data I draw that the game predicts the favorite to win by a certain goal difference and sets a threshold there. If the favorite wins by this threshold or less nothing happens, if the difference is greater the manager of the favorite team gains reputation points at the cost of the other manager. Each goal the result differs from the predicted threshold represents either 1 point gained or one point lost for each of the managers (unless the favorite wins, which seems to prevent gain for the other manager). In this case the threshold seems to be between 2 or 3 goals in favor of Brann. Why two thresholds and not one? It's tempting to guess that the game calculates the difference by dividing the reputation of the favorite club with the oppositions reputation. In this case that would mean 5554/2185 which equals 2.54, as you can see quite in the middle of 2 or 3 goals.

The individual match reputation change you've described here matches the standard of the ELO system very well. I have not done any definative testing myself, but it fits the profile of the system well.

I mention it more as a possible way to refine your research, rather as any alternate suggestion to your theories.

Of course, it also has no impact on the mechanics of how managers are awarded jobs - simply how manager reputations are impacted by individual games.

retired_florentino · 06-29-2008, 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DaveRH:
The individual match reputation change you've described here matches the standard of the ELO system very well. I have not done any definative testing myself, but it fits the profile of the system well.

I mention it more as a possible way to refine your research, rather as any alternate suggestion to your theories.

Of course, it also has no impact on the mechanics of how managers are awarded jobs - simply how manager reputations are impacted by individual games.

Sorry, I meant to say: it's likely that there is a constant value attached to the values also for continental/international results.

So rep increase = Competition Constant + ELO factoring from result.

retired_joannalaw · 06-29-2008, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
However, I remembered that I had a save from about a couple of weeks before I quit the first job, so I got the idea for an experiment. After many reloads, the Padova job opened up in the exact same time, but this time I was still employed. Guess what? I didn't get the job... reloaded a couple of times, but never got it.

What can we learn from this? - There is a difference if you are employed or not.

Good, I take this as very suggestive evidence that you are more likely to get a new job if you have just resigned.

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
This has 2 reasons, which I think both are valid.

1) Your under contract and you have to be paid. While this sum might seem small, it can be quite significant for smaller clubs and there is more to this as well, but I'll get onto that below.

2) When you quit your job, it seems your Current rep is static but ceases to be specific from the country of your club to being general, accessible to all nations you have loaded. This is based firstly on the fact that I got the job while unemployed but also on the news items that says you are being considered for jobs. While I was in Russia, I was never linked to any job but while I was unemployed I was linked with loads of jobs (supporting the theory that your current rep being more generic when you are unemployed). All of the jobs I was linked too was for clubs with rep below mine so no surprise there. After I accepted the Padova job, I was constantly again being linked with jobs all over the place (remember that my rep is still the same as it was when I was in Russia but never was linked with anything).

1. I have never actually seen this myself, but a whole lot of people believe it and say it`s so. Keep your eye out next time you get a job offer while still contracted to a club and especially check the clubs bank accounts before and after your signing.

2. The "generic current rep theory" isn`t quite satisfactory to me. I think the news items are rather related to whether other clubs believe you would be interested in managing them. This would have two implications. Firstly it would mean that you are more likely to get linked with other jobs if your rep is way higher than your club`s rep. This is the case in my game at least, as after two successful seasons with Heartlepool I am suddenly linked with clubs all over Europe. Very early in my Heartlepool career the numbers were 4530, 4544, 2503 and 3128 (Club), while near the end of the second season it`s 5604, 6977, 3599, 4145, the increases are 1074, 2433, 1096 and 1017. Notice that Current rep has increased about 2.5 times more than club rep. Secondly it would imply that you would be linked with more jobs while you are unemployed, which seems to fit your case. The main reason I don`t quite believe the "Generic current rep theory" is that there were no great difference in levels of the clubs I was linked with across countries.

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
Interestingly, looking at the jobs I was being linked to there was a similar trend again that they were below my current/home rep but here I discovered an interesting thing. I was only being linked with jobs in the same nations - Italy, France, Germany, England and Sweden. The latter two is because thats my nationalities, but the first two is directly related to the almost geographical closeness. I've never been linked with the other nations (Although I think this will change once your world rep becomes high enough). There is also a possibility that the geographic aspect is also related to knowledge of countries and/or relative rep of the leagues itself. It may also be that the jobs can only be in a band around your own rep, say at most +500 rep better than you or something like that - although this is just speculation that needs to be looked into more.

When combined with the following factors, it explain why I never got any offers in Russia:

Russia only have 2 leagues, so say 40-50 clubs and if you run it at full detail there is probably a larger database of managers than that, meaning that when it decided who to link with it is very unlikely that a human controlled manager will be in the top 4. However, if you are in different parts of the world, say England/Spain/Germany/Italy with several layers of leagues there is more clubs, i.e. more likely that the human manager would be on of the top 4 within the right rep bracket of what the club know it can get and hence the links all the time. I'm however so far not been actually offered a single job but more about that coming:

Hm, there are of course more clubs you can possibly be linked with in these countries plus more clubs at your approximate rep level. Could be as simple as that.

Quote:

Originally posted by ZJ:
After this, I went back again to my save and resigned from the Russian team, went on holiday just to see the spectrum of teams that would offer me jobs if I applied. My reps is approx 5000, 5200, 5000. The jobs I got was up to around 90% of my rep, so 4800 although its still possible to get higher I would assume if you are lucky. The best teams I could get varied from low end Championship clubs to low end Serie B clubs. There was some discrepencies though, particularly being offered the Southampton job which at the time is a top CC club. Looking into this, I started checking the various factors and I found that there was a very stable trend between the chairmen of all the teams which offered me a job: They had a high value for Business, typically 14-20. Looking around, it made a bit of sense as my salery of my old club (£1200) was way, way below what other managers was getting in the same leagues. This ties into what I said before about contracts for managers effecting employment as Business-minded chairmen is less likely to hire you as opposed to when you are unemployed and "free". This obviously works the other way as well, if you are relatively really well-paid a business minded chairmen might not want you. Other chairman stats might thus also effect the hiring decisions and skew the process - Kipfizh's experiment shows some of this as well, that a incompetent board can't pick a good manager etc.

It`s possible of course, though I would think that high chairman Business rather meant that they would be stricter with your finances, less likely to do stupid financial decisions (Modum springs to mind), and be less forgiving if you don`t do well financially. What where the financial situation at those clubs? It`s possible that those chairmen are more prone to firing their managers, or there could simply be a lot of them at higher levels.

retired_joannalaw · 06-30-2008, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DaveRH:
The individual match reputation change you've described here matches the standard of the ELO system very well. I have not done any definitive testing myself, but it fits the profile of the system well.

Yes, the data are indeed normally distributed so it is possible. The equation is awkward to use manually though, which makes testing difficult. Do you know of any software that calculates these scores?

Mechanics of Manager Reputation

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Mechanics of Manager Reputation