retired_mgavlick

Also posted this in TT&F, but it really belongs here. Been off the forums too much recently so have lost track of the important threads. Anyway...


The Intricacies of Re-ranking

I have been looking very hard at the pre-match odds over my current season. I was predicted to finish 17 (out of 22) pre-season, but was 1st 12 matches in. I noticed that the pre-match odds were generally beginning to favour me or show only a slight favouritism to the other team. This is in marked contrast to '06, in which pre-match odds stayed relatively stable throughout the season, no matter which position you occupied. There seems to be much more sophistication in the AI calculating odds in '07, and it brings a host of difficulties.

I managed to grab first place by playing a high tempo, tight, counter-attacking system, both home and away, against most teams. For the first 12 matches this worked fine, with my team generally grabbing 1-0 or 2-0 wins with most focus being on defending. However, these tactics are beginning to struggle as my odds shorten. I have found I need to play slower and wider and focus on possession football at home (and sometimes away) as most teams now play high tempo, tight, counter-attacking football against me. I slipped to third after a run of dodgy performances, but this tactical tweak is beginning to reap rewards. I think the tactical switch hindered me more heavily as I am still part-time and generally play against full-time opposition with deeper and stronger squads than mine. My first 11 is comparable to teams in the division but my reserves are short of quality. Playing slow, possession football with 4-5 players out seemed counter-intuitive but does seem to be the only way to ensure performances now that I am ranked more highly. It took me a while to adjust.

It certainly seems that re-ranking is pretty constant now. In a testing scenario I went on a 2 match repeated home and away sequence, in which my odds against the away team were significantly different if I had won the first home game. Odds and the related tactical decisions of the AI seem to be calculated game-by-game, which dramatically alters the experience of FM07 from FM06. It also means that if you are over-performing early in a season, teams will adapt quickly and you won't go on the 23 match run of form common in '06. You are likely to suffer swings of fortune, with 6 game winning and losing streaks as the AI adjusts and re-adjusts to your league position.

retired_Vishal816

should have read this before i slipped from 1st to 14th though i think that was more about morale than tactics...i generally do look at the odds...when a team are favourites i play 4-1-4-1 counter and gets ne a draw and sometimes even a win but also the occasional loss. I dont do this at home though, even if another team are favourites, i stick to a flat 4-4-2 with 2 dm's in the middle...works very well! but everything changes if i play one of the elite 4, in which case, its park the bus...home or away!

retired_janellewood86

A quick note on re-ranking.

It's interesting that since my promotion in my current save I'm currently performing incredibly well. After 8 games I'm sitting in second place after taking the runaway top team and a couple of play-off contenders as sizable scalps. All this using pretty much the same tactic I used last season.

What makes this all the more interesting is that my tactic last season didn't get the best out of my players. I drew so many that I should have won, lost when I could have nicked a draw. The re-ranking seems to make my opposition attack me (as my rank is very low), so my usual style (quick counter-attack) works a treat!

Similarly, I've been made manager of the English national team (I know, major bug). Playing pretty much the same but with a much reduced tempo and passing length I've won all but one game (Switzerland away). Obviously, my ranking is very high (3rd, actually), so teams sit back.

I fully expect my Foligno team to come unstuck in three or four games' time, and will have to play a different style to stop the opposition hitting me on the break. However, I would expect England to remain the same (unless we play a huge nation).

Any of you that play below the Premiership et al, have you also experienced this? Lightening form from average players on the higher stage? Similarly, those of you that play with the big guns, have you noticed that teams tend to play pretty much the same against you?

retired_elpata

Why do people think re ranking happens before January? It makes no sense for it to happen any time before 1st of Jan as thats when the game updates and not before. No team changes its style playing you until you play them for the 2nd time in the league.

The reason people think it happens before this is purely down to weather effects and bad training.

retired_janellewood86

Possibly. When I left my Foligno game behind to come home and eat dangerous amounts of turkey I hadn't experienced any real changes. In fact, I'm now TOP of the league just coming into the winter break. May be now is the time to panic.

But re-ranking doesn't happen at all before January? You could well be right, but I'd like to see some kind of evidence. There seems to be at least anecdotal evidence that the pre-match odds can change depending on results throughout the season, and I was under the impression that this was linked to re-ranking. Perhaps not.

Either way, I think it is best to assume there will be a need to change one's tactics throughout the season, not just in January, to cope with the style of play of the opposition. Again, whether that's other external conditions that causes that or whether it's re-ranking is perhaps something to look into.

In short, I wouldn't completely dismiss pre-Christmas re-ranking. Maybe it isn't classic re-ranking, but I think something's going on in that thar PC of mine.

retired_elpata

Odds are based on current form. This isn't linked to re ranking at all and if you seetheformations that the AI uses against you, this confirms this. Win a few games in a ow or get a few good results and the odds tend to changewithin the first month of a season, yet teams don't change the style ofplay they use agaisnt you. If this was classed as re ranking they would.

I've studied this loads over the last 2 years, and its mainly a weather issue, something many dismiss too quick or fail to acknowledge how big a part it plays. Its December to Jan that most players experience difficulties with, they mistake this with re ranking. But if you view the tactics used againts you it doesn't make sense of re ranking, were as look at weather it does.

Basically re ranking is just a change in a teams rep, which happens half way through season slightly, then dramitically at the end of the year. Re ranking is based upon rep, so it doesn't make sense to why people change their line up against you before Christmas?

Paulo1975

So let me try and understand. If you are favourite for a game then it's defend and if i'm the underdog then it's attack because i'm not expected to win? If that is the case then it's so different to '06 and that why i'm struggling against pretty poor teams even though my side is very strong. Any help would be grateful. Thanks

retired_elpata

No the other way around, if you favourite you cn attack, if you under dog then defensive will probs be more suited.

retired_elpata

http://community.sigames.com/eve/for...1/m/7732014782

This thread mentions re ranking, its posted in GQ.

retired_Sophie335

I dont think that 're-ranking' becomes an issue if your paying attention to the odds and giving your teamtalks reflecting this.

A few examples.

At Home clear favourites - no pre match team talk and depending on performance at HT, then a dont let your perfomance down with telling two or three you have faith.

Away favourites - this is a tricky one, id still play a defensive formation on the counter attacking, but watch the game more closely and change accordingly. At HT the team talk would vary from expecting a win to not letting their performance down.

Home not favourites - easy, home attacking formation, tell your boys you expect a win, or if your feeling brave and depending what youve said to the media, expect a win! At HT I guess it would be you can win this game, or dont let your performance down.

Away not favourites - play your defensive (counter attacking) formation and wish your team luck, at HT tell them to enjoy the rest of the game, no pressure.

This is certainly not definitive but something I feel works for me.