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It's no use having a squad full of star players without a decent way for them to play their football.


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Old 11-06-2006, 06:23 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #1
Joe Blow
 
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Default Target man: Yes or No – analysis

Last days I read considerable threads about effectiveness of using target man. As you know, when choosing this kind of specific player you must decide how players will try to play ball to him. Options are:

a) “to head”
b) “run onto ball”
c) “to feet”

Firstly, i´ll give my approach about aspect a) “to head”. Notice that all is based from my short experience of FM 2007 so you can argue and discuss other aspects.

Ok, if you choose target man striker some attributes are more important than others. You should analyse – carefully – these ones:

Main: Jumping, Heading
Secondary: Finishing, Off the Ball, Determination

If Jumping or Heading > 17 and both > 32 then you might choose that striker as target man and use pass style “to head”.

Example: Take a look at Klose stats (beginning of the game):

Jumping = 19
Heading = 20

Finishing = 18
Off the Ball = 17
Determination = 18

So, Klose guarantee pre-requisite values:

Jumping or Heading > 17 (two very good) and both = 39 > 32

Now, this is when fun thing begin. Altough Klose rocks you shouldn´t play him as target man all games. And how you know that? Looking at opponent DC and compare all those stats I refered.

Other important thing is decide which DC you want Klose to be near. If playing 4x4x2, one FC will play a little bit to the right while other will be more inclined to the left. Same with other 2 DC´s. Suppose you choose Klose to play at right but DC (left) is better at jumping + heading. Maybe you should consider to move Klose as FC (left) because DC (right) will have harder job to handle him.

Now, some logical behind my approach.

Klose jumping = 19
Klose heading = 20

Opponent DC jumping = 16
Opponent DC heading = 17

Klose = 19 + 20 = 39
Opponent DC = 33

Ratio, 39/33 = 1,18

If Klose stats were, for example = 40 and opponent DC = 20, then ratio will be = 2. Means Klose will have possibility to win 2x balls “to head”.

But, with these numbers you just need to use this formula

1,18 --- 2
X --- 10 (10 is number of crosses )

X = 5,9

This result means that Klose will win nearly 6 ou 10 crosses while opponent DC will win only 4. You can watch game stats to see what happened at first half, for example. Use this simple formula to know when you must choose target man (“to head”).

I´ll try to add more info for other details: b) “run onto ball” and c) to feet”.

Hope you like it (all things can make a difference at high football level)
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Old 11-06-2006, 06:36 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #2
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Interesting theory but how does Current Ability factor into this, along with any other attribute that governs competition over the ball (Strength, if the SC is running onto the cross vs the DC who is doing a standing jump)
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Old 11-06-2006, 06:49 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #3
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Its the actual jumping stat what judges if a player will win a header I believe. The heading attribute indicates how good he is with his head and not what will he/wont he win the ball.
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Old 11-06-2006, 07:10 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cleon:
Its the actual jumping stat what judges if a player will win a header I believe. The heading attribute indicates how good he is with his head and not what will he/wont he win the ball.
I recently saw the FM06 defenders thread (bout a year old) where you where the only one claiming otherwise Jumping wasnt that important to you, as heading is used to determine whether someone wins the ball.

Anyway, have you already seen my thread?
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Old 11-06-2006, 07:32 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #5
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I was under the impression it was not that simplistic. The Jumping stat is a good indicator of how often a player will be able to win the header but you should rather see it as how high/good the player can reach balls rather than the stat that automatically wins them the header.

What I am referring too is headers are simply player A vs. player B, some will be running onto the ball and their launch speed will be faster (meaning a higher jump) then you have the player's height and weight, finally if a header is a contested one I'd imagine their strength would also help in pushing or moving the other player to reach the header.
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Old 11-06-2006, 09:17 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #6
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It has been previously stated by SI that what FMTacticus said is correct.

Other stats that I think could make a difference are Balance, Agility, Work Rate and Bravery.
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Old 11-06-2006, 09:37 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #7
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What I've found with my target man and "to head" style is that a player with high jumping and strength will win almost every header - regardless of any other stats (off the ball is handy though for the player to compete for the ball in the first place).
It seems to me that the player's physical attributes (height and weight) are largely, if not completely, overridden by the jumping and strength stats.

My problem with my target man was that his heading stat was very low so, although he won the VAST majority of headers (50/51 in one match), his distribution via flick-ons was appalling. The lad trying to run on to his flick-ons must've had nightmares thinking about it
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Old 11-06-2006, 09:57 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by train_spotter:
What I've found with my target man and "to head" style is that a player with high jumping and strength will win almost every header - regardless of any other stats (off the ball is handy though for the player to compete for the ball in the first place).
It seems to me that the player's physical attributes (height and weight) are largely, if not completely, overridden by the jumping and strength stats.

My problem with my target man was that his heading stat was very low so, although he won the VAST majority of headers (50/51 in one match), his distribution via flick-ons was appalling. The lad trying to run on to his flick-ons must've had nightmares thinking about it
The weight and height attributes are already taken into account when working out the other attributes. For example, A 14 stone player with 20 Pace is as fast as a 11 stone player with 20 Pace. A 5'10 player with 20 Jumping is able to jump to the same height as a 6'6 player with 20 Jumping. That doesn't mean these stats don't matter though because a 6'6 player won't have to jump as high to get the ball so could have an advantage in some situations.
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Old 11-06-2006, 10:52 PM   Target man: Yes or No – analysis Post #9
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Altough jumping could be major aspect for winning 1x1 situations, other stats might influence ratio of sucess. Some may consider determination and strenght, others say balance and bravery are most important. That depends on each player experience.

However, i can accept jumping = quantity and heading = quality.
For example: Mohamadou Idrissou (FC, Duisburg) got 20 jumping but only 10 heading. Obvioulsy, he can win lots of crosses (quantity) but what about effectiveness (quality) of his headings?

Either way, cross from a) deep or b) byline will influence % of winnings.

a) deep more easier for defender because he control ball in his front;

byline increase chance of sucess for target man and defender will have more difficult to reach the ball.

So, conclusion based on my calculations could be something like this:

1,18 --- 2
X --- 10 (10 is number of crosses )

X = 5,9

This result means that Klose will win nearly 6 out of 10 crosses while opponent DC will win only 4.

a) if those 10 crosses are from deep, may be more realistic reducing percentage in 25-50%. This way, Klose will win nearly 4/5 balls.

b) if those 10 crosses are from byline, we can consider bold sentece as more correct.

Now, it´s up to you choosing what type of cross you prefer. From deep, you can get more (less quality) but from byline you can create more chances.

In my thinking, with 5 crosses byline, Klose could win about 3 (with those DC stats). Because he got 20 heading, all shoots have superior qualicaty. Goalkeeper could defend one but other 2 might reach the net.

Thanks for your arguments...anyone wanna try write the same for "run onto ball" or "to feet"?
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