Definitely the confidence is set too high. In real life, especially in the Premiership, manager contracts hardly ever expire, yet it's not uncommon for there to be three or four casualties each year from contract expiration at the end of the season.
Although a five year contract would make the game simpler to play, for the sake of realism, a two year contract is all I would expect.
And, ironically, the two managers in my current season game (10 years in) that have kept their job since the start of the game are Sam Allardyce and Steve McClaren.
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