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Old 01-24-2008, 11:32 PM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ched:


The point of this? I've seen several threads complaining that the AI "cracks" their tactics, and the less educated threads along the lines of "the AI cheats". Due to the fact i usually employ a 3 formation rotation i did not notice this greatly, but there were uncharecteristic slumps that i had no way of explaining. So i decided to investigate. Before an SI employee comes on here telling me i should just play the game, i would do except it's not much fun right now.

lol, there is no reasonable explenation how AI could score 170% more. somebody died there?
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Old 01-24-2008, 11:36 PM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #12
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Apart from this explanation that is.

Quote:
I didn't play this game enough to actually debate about it, but the high percentage here has to do with the number being small (0.22 to 0.6). Since the number you'll be dividing by is quite low, it'll inflate the percentage. Not saying it doesn't happen or that it isn't an issue, but it just looks way worse than it is.
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:31 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:
Ched.

1. What about fatigue? Isn't that another reason why there might be a slump in form?

2. Injuries linked a little to fatigue might play their part. For all their World Class players, Chelsea do not exactly have a deep squad in certain areas compared to the likes of the other big 3.

3. In stage 2 you won all 23 games but only scored 55 goals. That's not too many for 23 out of 23. Is there anything to be read into that?

4. The only stat that you posted that would concern me is ..... Average AI Goals p/g: 0.6 - 172% more than pre-feb All the others make senst to me, but this one just seems wrong.

Sorry I have more questions than answers. I must admit that this isn't something that I've come across.
sorry i wasn't exactly clear earlier;

1) If i rotate formations, the slump doesn't happen. Ever. In the past, as soon as i've lost a game i should have won, i revert to my 4-4-2 back up, this was just an experiment to determine whether a lot of peoples gripes are related to AI *cracking* tactics.

2) i thought i'd said it, but anyway, yes i agree that the only stat that is worrying is the finishing one, as i said, i WANT the AI to actively reduce the number of chances in a game as they would IRL, i just don't want aliadiere to behave like henry during that time.

3) As to only 55 in 23, i play conservatively, hence only conceding 5. Perhaps a switch to a more aggressive fmt would have solved this problem, but i wanted to see how the AI behaved against a constant.

NB: my back-up fmt is, interestingly, much more aggressive; possibly why it works?

As to the others above jimbo (haven't got round to reading down yet..)

Soundian - not sure you've got the right end of the stick. Not saying you're wrong, it's just that it wasn't what i was investigating, and as to only using one season, i've had several where i've experienced similar, just not recorded numbers, so i thought i'd do so here - feel free to do 10 seasons of research for me.

Heath - as you mentioned, the slumps never last long enough to effect overall season results - previous users have suggested it is merely a *leveller* used to close up leagues - i'm not convinced, but i'm not going to entirely rule it out.

Hyperion - i've seen the same slump in climates that are much less varied as the uk - it's just that i never recorded numbers for those - although it was one of my early attempts to justofy it, doesn't explain +170% AI goals tho...

Kataria - on FM07, second season onwards my slumps came around NOV (first season always seemed later) it could just vary from game to game, or be related to weather etc.

now to read the rest
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:33 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by scousebr:
<BLOCKQUOTE>Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:
4. The only stat that you posted that would concern me is ..... Average AI Goals p/g: 0.6 - 172% more than pre-feb All the others make senst to me, but this one just seems wrong.
I didn't play this game enough to actually debate about it, but the high percentage here has to do with the number being small (0.22 to 0.6). Since the number you'll be dividing by is quite low, it'll inflate the percentage. Not saying it doesn't happen or that it isn't an issue, but it just looks way worse than it is. </BLOCKQUOTE>

Fair point, i'd like to do more researrch into this, but i am limited somewhat by time.

If it had been a mere 50% increase then i would have explained it away as merely a statistical anomaly, the size does seem to imply a large increase, although how large only repeat exps will uncover i think.
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:41 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jimbokav1971:
That's a REALLY good point.

Thanks:thup:.

So ignoring the % increase it's an increase from 0.22 goals per game conceded to 0.60 goals per game conceded.

If I look at these 2 stats in isolation I would say that the first figure is the one that is wrong.

As a result of that, I would possibly suggest that rather than the AI *crack* your tactics as seems to be the popular claim in GQ, isn't it more accurate that it's actually sorting it's own tactics out?

Ched. Have you got any other titbits of information that you have held back, such as AI formation and generalpattern of play?
It would be perfect if the AI just sorted itself out, but it just doesn't look that way form watching the matches.

Basically, the changes they seem to make are as follows;

1) increase time wasting - i've seen keepers start "taking time over kicks" form the 8th minute...it makes me weep. Could lead to an increase in finishing, but i use high time wasting so i would hope my finishing % would be higher if this was the cause.

2) More defensiv, and use counter attack. Early season some middling teams (borough, bburn etc) would have a go, mid-late season they are often more conservative - would explain the reduction in chances.

3) Formations appear largely similar. Had to check that one as i couldn't remember.

My main gripe is that the quality of chances is NO DIFFERENT. There are still occasional one-on-ones, but a lot of the shots are from laughable positions, as they were early season.

Similarly the user has vastly more possession and more chances, which is why i find the staggering increase in goals scored by the AI hard to explain.

As ahs been said, it could just be an illusion caused by the small numbers being used, but throughout my FM playing, i've always been able to identify a slump and head it off based on the AIs finishing rocketing.

I think my first ever post here was along the lines of "why does cech let in every shot?" and after much investigation i figured that as soon as he started doing that, a change of tactics stopped it instantly.

As i've said, i'm all for having to change tactics, i would just rather i was outplayed instead of AI finishing going through the roof, with minimal differences to the rest of the AI performance.
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:54 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #16
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ched:

If anybody wants to retry this experiment i can upload my tactics (or maybe if anybody just wants a devastatingly effective tactic for 6 months lol).
Upload them, if anything can make my beloved Bolton side anywhere near devastating it will be a miracle. And I'm a massive fan patient, defensively tight football.
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:56 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by Law_Man:
<BLOCKQUOTE>Originally posted by Ched:

If anybody wants to retry this experiment i can upload my tactics (or maybe if anybody just wants a devastatingly effective tactic for 6 months lol).
Upload them, if anything can make my beloved Bolton side anywhere near devastating it will be a miracle. And I'm a massive fan patient, defensively tight football. </BLOCKQUOTE>

You're going to have to tell me how to do that cos i haven't got a clue lol
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Old 01-25-2008, 01:56 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #18
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* i meant "tell me how to upload them"
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Old 01-25-2008, 02:00 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #19
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Could I ask what your starting reputation was and what it was by Feb?

Equally, how many times did the AI start the game without forward arrows after Jan 30th compared to pre-slump matches?
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Old 01-25-2008, 02:03 AM   February - The point of tactical uselessness? - worrying statistics Post #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by wwfan:
Could I ask what your starting reputation was and what it was by Feb?

Equally, how many times did the AI start the game without forward arrows after Jan 30th compared to pre-slump matches?
My starting rep for this exp was "international" - after some foraging, the weaker teams didn't use farrows for their staring fmts. Utd and arsenal did (didn't play liverpool until april when the world had become normal again).
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