January 1st Update
I don't really have too much to add here, as planned I am hardly changing anything other than which version of the tactic I use based on odds/scout reports - other players are only coming in when I have an injury. So here are my results to the midpoint of the season.
PRM - Watford 4 v Blackburn 3
Match Stats
PRM - West Ham 0 v Watford 1
Match Stats
PRM - Watford 0 v Reading 0
Match Stats
PRM - Portsmouth 2 v Watford 0
Match Stats
PRM - Watford 0 v Fulham 0
Match Stats
PRM - Tottenham 0 v Watford 1
Match Stats
PRM - Watford 1 v Liverpool 1
Match Stats
PRM - Man Utd 2 v Watford 0
Match Stats
PRM - Watford 2 v Bolton 2
Match Stats
PRM - Watford 2 v Aston Villa 3
Match Stats
Current League Table:
My season is still going pretty well despite a few self destructive performances that are impossible to plan a counter to, such as the 2 own goals against Aston Villa in the last 5 minutes which cost me the win, and then the match.
My aim for a top 8 finish is still on at the midpoint, which is nice. I am still usually having more possesion than opponents, but even though I am still creating lots of chances and shots on goal, I am surviving almost wholely from Eddie Johnson's goals. If he got injured, to be honest, I can't see my team scoring 1 goal a game even at the moment.
About the questions of including CA/PA in the calculating stages. This is something that could be taken into consideration of course, but the reason I haven't used it is simply because I don't use external tools that could tell me my players ability exactly. I get my information from my assistant/viewing attributes. To be honest, even if I we're to consider player ability, I'm not sure I would use PA at all, as it isn't a measure of the players standard - just how good he could potentially become (which isn't much use to me playing with a small team where results are hard to come by - I could probably get away with playing potential stars in larger teams due to side quality being considerably higher.
Thanks for posting some new formula ideas! I'm glad the idea is interesting people enough to discuss how it could be improved - this was my main goal for the thread - as I was already pretty confident that my method was working to a reasonable degree with my teams. I shall have a look at these when I have finished this season and got all the performances/stats uploaded for people to see