slware

Hi guys,
This is my first post but Ive encountered something in my Limerick (Republic of Ireland Divisiom 1) game that I wanted to share.
First of all I was given odds of 5,000/1 to win the title!This was the highest odds I have ever encountered and I feel it was totally unjustified as we actually had an alright squad and a £7,000 transfer budget which I thought was massive.
Also,my odds for each game have been the highest I've ever seen.Before almost every game we have had odds of at best 10/1 (most of the time 20/1),and the message even though we are 14 points clear at the top of the table after 20 games.

retired_mrsjb

Obviously the AI thinks your team is a bit crap.

Unlike in RL, the bookies in FM are not particularly canny, it has to be said. I tend to ignore what they say as it's usually utter pish.

slware

sorry thats meant to be and the message "Limerick face impossible task against X team"

retired_mrsjb

I think it bases the odds on the strength assessments it makes in offseason. I had one year where the AI thought I'd challenge, and despite being bottom at New Year and unable to buy a win, it still said expected title challengers X should make light work of newly promoted Y, despite the fact that Y were top and on a 20 game unbeaten run.

At the risk of tipping, I'd say ignore the bookies.

Uknowmehfo

I would have loved to see what message I would have got with Caefarnon on that european campaign we had circa 2010/11

Uknowmehfo

More like reputation in my experience, but to each his own theory.

retired_mrsjb

It tends to fluctuate rather more than reputation though - the season after the one I mentioned it realised we weren't going to storm the league and our odds adjusted accordingly. I'm pretty sure our reputation was more or less unchanged.

retired_tye1234

This is SI so I have no doubt thare are a hell of a lot of factors thrown into the mix. But unfortunately the odds do seem to be worked out in the off season and then applied to each game, To get more realistic odds tey would need to take league position, form, team morale current team strength etc into the equation. I would love if hey were more realistic, dare I say if I were a strong favourite to win a match I might adjust my team selection and tactics somewhat

retired_frogchickie

I was 5000/1 to win the Champions League at TNS every season, no matter what.

For league games I was sometimes 1/50.

My odds to win the Welsh league were always 4/6 I think. Easy money tbh.

I think they must be the upper and lower boundaries unless anyone has had higher/lower?

retired_frogchickie

More like reputation in my experience, but to each his own theory. </BLOCKQUOTE>

Definitely reputation. No matter how well I did in Europe with TNS, I was always 5000/1 and rank outsiders to win individual matches.