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I decided today to try to prove that there is definitely something wrong with the shots to goal ratio in FM2008. Those of you that have seen some of my other posts will know that I am no “fanboy” so I started this exercise very much from the “I am right, this game is FUBAR” perspective. I was also intrigued that one of newspapers in UK printed a “goal to shots” ratio table for last seasons Premiership. (and this season so far). I was sure this was the information I needed to finally prove to myself that there was a problem.
Firstly, I will not re-create this table as it will take too much space however for 2006/7 the variation was Bolton top (15.60%) to Watford bottom (6.96%). For 2007 so far this is Everton top (18.09%) to Derby bottom. (6.04%).
Having just completed my first season managing Aston Villa and finishing a creditable third, I decided to use the data from this season as my benchmark.
Aston Villa 2007/8 (FM08)
Shots – 510
On Target – 282
Goals – 62
Ratio Scored – 12.16%
On Target Ratio – 55%
These figures somewhat surprised me, the shots to goals ration is about where I would expect it to be based on the real Premiership ratios. However, further research showed me that last season; Man Utd had the best accuracy rating of the premiership with 46% of their shots being on target. My ratio of Aston Villa at 55% is too high. To check this I also looked at 4 other teams, Arsenal (1st), Middlesbrough (20th), Wigan (18th but least goals scored) and Man City (10th). Sorry, I did not do all 20 teams as even getting this far was pretty tedious.
Arsenal 2007/8 (FM08) – 1st
Shots – 648
On Target – 355
Goals – 73
Ratio Scored – 12.26%
On Target Ratio – 54.7%
Middlesbrough 2007/8 (FM08) – 20thShots – 339
On Target – 150
Goals – 32
Ratio Scored – 9.4%
On Target Ratio – 44.2%
Wigan 2007/8 (FM08) – 18th
Shots – 334
On Target – 150
Goals – 21
Ratio Scored – 6.28%
On Target Ratio – 44.9%
Man City 2007/8 (FM08) -10th
Shots – 542
On Target – 297
Goals – 43
Ratio Scored – 7.9%
On Target Ratio – 54.8%
These figures seem to prove to me that there is little wrong with the shots to goal ratio (maybe slightly too low) but the big issue is in the amount of shots that hit the target being at least 25-30% too high.
Also, last season Man Utd won the league by generating 552 chances with only Arsenal and Liverpool getting above 500. It would appear that there are also a few too many chances being created at the top end, but the bottom of the league is realistic (Watford 336 in 2006/7). It was also interesting to see that Man City, controlled by the AI, had an even bigger issue with the “shots to goal” ration than I did. :eek:
If what I have discovered is accurate then the match engine is getting too many shots on target, but if the overall “shots to goal” ratio is reasonably realistic, then the Goal Keepers must be saving more to balance it out (not so much super keeper as well balanced keeper).
To stop this post rivalling “war and peace” for length, I will post the goal keeper stats and my conclusions to follow.
I thought that the major complaint was that the human goals to shots ratio was much lower than the AI's, this seems to suggest that they are very similar. What was the goals to shots ratio like for all the clubs combined in the matches they played against your team?
Originally posted by dafuge:
I thought that the major complaint was that the human goals to shots ratio was much lower than the AI's, this seems to suggest that they are very similar. What was the goals to shots ratio like for all the clubs combined in the matches they played against your team?
It also depends on certain situations- most markedly with the sheer amount of one v ones that are generated using certain tactics.
After all SI will have already performed such tests before releasing the patch- but where caught out once the human manager chucked a spanner in the works.
I am clearly seeing no major problem with these stats the only thing it needs a little bit is a decrease in shots on target, I am nearing the end of my season i BSN so I will try and do a similar mini analysis and if I can find the real BSN stats from last season somewhere.
If it's too easy to create chances, for example through balls always on target you get a lot more 1-on-1 situations. To make it so the game doesn't result in 8-3 scorelines, it makes it impossible to score 1-on-1s so the score doesn't go too high.
What needs to be done is to make it harder to create chances and this can be done by making defenders better. When you watch games in real life, defenders like Carvalho and Terry rarely let in through balls but it the match engine it happens all the time.
Originally posted by CowRonaldo:
It's more of a creating chances bug.
If it's too easy to create chances, for example through balls always on target you get a lot more 1-on-1 situations. To make it so the game doesn't result in 8-3 scorelines, it makes it impossible to score 1-on-1s so the score doesn't go too high.
What needs to be done is to make it harder to create chances and this can be done by making defenders better. When you watch games in real life, defenders like Carvalho and Terry rarely let in through balls but it the match engine it happens all the time.
but the game is pre calculated before the match and re caluclated every time you go to the tactics screen and back to the match.
there's no need to do unfair things like this to stop the score getting two high because all they have to do is make the re/calculations not make that many chances.
wwhy would they have, for example, one function that calculates the scores and the amount of chances etc, and then another fucntion that looks at the previous function and say 'to many goals, better make sure the 1 on 1s dont all go through'?
Sorry all, a bit delayed with the final analysis, bathing 2 small children interrupted my flow a bit.
However, to answer Dafuge’s question.
The ratio’s against Aston Villa for season 2007/8 are:
Opposition shots: 401
On Target: 194
Goals Against: 33
This gives a shot conversion accuracy for the opposition of 8.2% and an accuracy of 48%. As I finshed third, I think that the 8.2% is fairly realistic, however, I think it shows again that there are too many shots on target. The combined premier league opposition managed to get a better accuracy against Aston Villa than Man Utd managed in the whole season 2006/7.
Will finish off the rest of the analysis now and hopefully post it tonight (story time permitting)
8.0.1 Shots to Goal Ratio - An Analysis 
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