The detailed confidence thing is an excellent addition to the game but it definitely needs fine tuning. A couple of experiences from me:
1. My star player for my lower league team was poached by Arsenal. As part of the deal they agreed to play a friendly. Nice pay-day, and I prepared my team by telling them to enjoy the run-out. We lost 0-6 and it took 6 months for the fans to get over it.
2. The converse is when I was drawn against minnows in the first round of a cup 3 days before a 'big' game. I put out my U-19s and we won 3-0. The fans were disappointed the score wasn't more emphatic.
I'd like to think that with a year to tweak, SI will get these right for FM09