[retired_yesmoncar]

Cameron is too much of a smug **** to win an election. Lib Dems are a joke. Brown is a smug **** too, but Labour are seen as better than tories by the majority, hence, Brown would win a snap election.

[retired_drumcook]

I disagree that Brown needs to win an election to have a mandate. It's not at all like the Major situation, which came out of nowhere, and so you could legitimately make a case that the government was not what people had voted for.

In this case, it's all as advertised, people voted for Labour knowing that they would get a bit of Blair followed by a bit of Brown.

[retired_jenn912010]

but Labour are seen as better than tories by the majority, hence, Brown would win a snap election.

A majority doesn't matter, if key seats go against him.

[retired_mnw_cna]

Originally posted by Goodyfc2:
<BLOCKQUOTE>but Labour are seen as better than tories by the majority, hence, Brown would win a snap election.

A majority doesn't matter, if key seats go against him. </BLOCKQUOTE>

Eh?

If he gets 40 odd percent of the vote, he wins, and gets a working majority. I forget what the current majority is, but I've got about 50-60 in my head. That means an awful lot of key seats would need to have results against the general trend, if the current polls are to be believed.

And to Cobbler: fair point.

[retired_jenn912010]

If he gets 40 odd percent of the vote, he wins, and gets a working majority. I forget what the current majority is, but I've got about 50-60 in my head. That means an awful lot of key seats would need to have results against the general trend, if the current polls are to be believed.

If he gets 100% of the votes in safe Labour seats, and only 30% in marginals, he'd lose, even if it worked out that a larger percentage of the population of the UK voted Labour. True, the general trend is pro-Labour, but I haven't seen any detailed polling in specific areas that suggest there wouldn't be at least a slight swng to the Tories.

[Fitness Matt]

Why is everybody thinking November? Not a chance, too late in the year.

If he goes to the country (and it wouldn't surprise me one bit) he'll announce it during the Tory conference - probably on the first day, just to prat them about and show the whole country the Tories making policies in public (not good, never is. Looks like desperation. And it makes them look divided on key subjects.).

He'll want the shortest campaign possible, to retain the poll lead. It has to be at least three weeks, so that would make the election date October 25th.

[DebSchiff]

Well, when it happens this is the thread. Because I have MYSTIC POWERS.

[retired_nickyfit]

I think he will go for it, it sounds as if the economy is going to go tits up in the next yeat which gives the Tories all the ammunition they will ever need due to the fact that Brown was the Chancellor for the last ten years so it wouldn't be hard to shift a lot of the blame onto him.

[retired_nickyfit]

The BBC is saying that Labour has in the last 24 hours started recruiting staff to work during the election, they are supposed to start work next Monday. I think that makes it pretty clear that he is going for an autumn election.

[DebSchiff]

Newsnight was saying November last night. Mon an election :cool: