Quote:
Originally posted by Goodyfc2:
<BLOCKQUOTE> Tories are just experiencing a post conference bounce. Same time last week, after their conference labour were 10 points ahead weren't they? The true lead is somewhere in the middle, obviously.
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I wouldn't be so sure. The successful conference will have won a lot of Conservative- leaning undecideds over, and the inheritance tax announcement will go down a storm in Lab-Con marginals in the South East.
The story now is a Tory fightback, and Brown has been hit pretty hard over his visit to Iraq as well. Momentum is with the Conservatives again, after a couple of months of being hung out to dry by the media. The Telegraph, Mail and Sun have all cooled their Brown ardour after Cameron's speech; we've got a real race now. </BLOCKQUOTE>
True, although Brown not calling an election only lends to the Tories' momentum. We should remember that even if the parties are level-heading, Labour will still win an overall majority due to the system. Brown's chances of winning the next election decrease with every week he doesn't call it. If he announces that he won't be calling one this autumn, he does two things. Firstly, he makes himself look like a ditherer. It's an image that will stick, especially given the nature of his PMQs' performance. Secondly, he gives the Tories a massive boost. Not only have they done well, they've done so well that they've scared Gordon off. It sends a message that not even Brown was sure he'd win.
It's those consequences of not calling an election that make me think he'll call it, even if it means a smaller but still comfortable majority. Ed Balls called it right earlier this week, the question 'Will Brown take the risk?' could easily now be taken to mean 'Will Brown risk not calling an election?'.
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