retired_cnaisnice

Objective:

I want to provide an detailed analysis of the player development model in FM08. Since SI modified the training system for FM08, this study will hopefully determine whether a long-term game is sustainable. This will also investigate as to why many talented youth are not picked by the national team.


Motivation:

I like to play out a career in FM over a span of 20+ seasons. In order to enjoy such a long-term game, it is crucial that the youth development and the regen system maintain a consistent level of players. There have been multiple threads complaining that the training system is broken. There are also sporadic threads complaining that regens have unrealistically low physical stats.

Furthermore, I've also noticed in my game that national teams are not picking talented youth, but rather sticking with the veterans well past their peak. This might have to do something with the development model.


Simulation:

I started off a holiday game with the 8.0.1 patch. I am using a large database and have the following leagues playable:

Argentina - Primera División
Australia - A-League
Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro
China - Super League
England - Premiership and Championship
France - Ligue 1
Germany - Bundesliga
Holland - Premier Division
Italy - Serie A and Serie B
Mexico - Primera División
Portugal - Bwin Liga
Russia - Premier League
Scotland - Premier League
South Africa - Castle Premiership
South Korea - K-League
Spain - La Liga and Seconda A
USA - MLS

This covers basically 5 continents with 17 countries and 20 leagues. I am saving every 2 years in August. The numbers used for analysis are obtained using Genie Scout.

retired_cnaisnice

Savegame 1: July 7, 2007

Total number of players: 52331

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2
180 - 189 PA: 21
170 - 179 PA: 111
160 - 169 PA: 160

190 - 200 CA: 0
180 - 189 CA: 2
170 - 179 CA: 0
160 - 169 CA: 2
150 - 159 CA: 12
140 - 149 CA: 34
130 - 139 CA: 71
120 - 129 CA: 183

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666

All-around athletes* : 113

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6
180 - 189 PA: 39
170 - 179 PA: 92
160 - 169 PA: 227

190 - 200 CA: 0
180 - 189 CA: 2
170 - 179 CA: 15
160 - 169 CA: 24
150 - 159 CA: 60
140 - 149 CA: 173
130 - 139 CA: 353
120 - 129 CA: 746

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016

All-around athletes* : 366

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1
180 - 189 CA: 18
170 - 179 CA: 68

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2
Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Sebastien Frey[27] - 173 CA

England
Players under 25 with international caps: 13
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Spain
Players under 25 with international caps: 9
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1 Jesus Navas[21] - 166 CA

Italy
Players under 25 with international caps: 5
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

France
Players under 25 with international caps: 9
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Germany
Players under 25 with international caps: 16
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Holland
Players under 25 with international caps: 20
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Brazil
Players under 25 with international caps: 21
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Argentina
Players under 25 with international caps: 18
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Analysis

This sets the baseline at the beginning of the game. With the exception of Messi and Fabregas, talented players under 21 reach around 150 CA. There's also a good amount of players under 25 that have international caps. In fact, only 2 players under 25 >= 165 CA has not been capped yet. The only player >= 170 CA without a cap is Frey.

retired_cnaisnice

Savegame 2: August 4, 2009

Total number of players: 53322

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 6
180 - 189 PA: 22
170 - 179 PA: 94
160 - 169 PA: 112

190 - 200 CA: 0
180 - 189 CA: 0
170 - 179 CA: 0
160 - 169 CA: 6
150 - 159 CA: 13
140 - 149 CA: 23
130 - 139 CA: 70
120 - 129 CA: 110

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1357

All-around athletes* : 117

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 5
180 - 189 PA: 29
170 - 179 PA: 110
160 - 169 PA: 189

190 - 200 CA: 3
180 - 189 CA: 3
170 - 179 CA: 25
160 - 169 CA: 65
150 - 159 CA: 156
140 - 149 CA: 280
130 - 139 CA: 540
120 - 129 CA: 821

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1300

All-around athletes* : 331

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 5
180 - 189 CA: 23
170 - 179 CA: 95

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1280
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 13
Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Amauri[29] - 175 CA

England
Players under 25 with international caps: 7
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
Leighton Baines[24] - 166 CA

Spain
Players under 25 with international caps: 5
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 7
Jesus Navas[23] - 172 CA

Italy
Players under 25 with international caps: 9
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
Lucas[22] - 174 CA

France
Players under 25 with international caps: 7
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2
Jeremy Menez[22] - 168 CA

Germany
Players under 25 with international caps: 8
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Holland
Players under 25 with international caps: 10
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

Brazil
Players under 25 with international caps: 13
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
Lucas[22] - 174 CA

Argentina
Players under 25 with international caps: 13
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
Gonzalo Higuain[21] - 168 CA

Analysis

Even just after two years, we're seeing signs that the youth development is not up to standard. While the regens have higher PA, the total number of under-21s that have >= 120 CA dropped by 79.

For players 21 to 24, the average CA is going up. There's also an drop in the number of players with good physical attributes in both age groups. In the 21 to 24 group, there's a drop off of 716 players with good pace and acceleration.

As for international caps, we can seeing less players under 25 getting caps. We are also seeing players who have good CA, but are not being called up. Victor Valdes, Amauri, Jesus Navas and Lucas are all examples >= 170 CA and no caps.

retired_DanielleR827

i've bookmarked this, you have a reader, keep it up ;-)

kepners

I wouldn't mind if average player levels would go down a bit. I love this game, but something that bothers me after few seasons is, that it seems like that even worst teams in premiership are filled with players with who got great attributes.

If you compare premiership players since the moment you start, and then let's say 3 years it seems premier league standard goes up way too much...suddenly mid-table team having as good team as top table team at start. This due development and transfers. I feel the cap between best EPL team and worst EPL team narrows down too much and there could be more difference between their key player statistics.

That is why I'm glad standard of average players go down, because I don't want to face team every game where their player is 18+ on every attribute ( overstatement, but you know what I mean )

kepners

You see, I want great individuals stand out, but they dont if nearly every player on pitch is up his standard. I want more variety, and more weaknesses even on world's best players emphatzing their strenghts and weaknesses alike.

retired_cnaisnice

I'm going to try a new format by putting past results side by side. So in this post, you'll see 3 numbers. The first is savegame 1, second is savegame 2 and the rightmost is the current savegame 3.

Hopefully, this will allow easier comparison.

Savegame 3: August 1, 2011

Total number of players: 52331, 53322, 53260

Players under 21:

190 - 200 PA: 2, 6, 7
180 - 189 PA: 21, 22, 39
170 - 179 PA: 111, 94, 99
160 - 169 PA: 160, 112, 92

190 - 200 CA: 0, 0, 0
180 - 189 CA: 2, 0, 0
170 - 179 CA: 0, 0, 1
160 - 169 CA: 2, 6, 0
150 - 159 CA: 12, 13, 4
140 - 149 CA: 34, 23, 7
130 - 139 CA: 71, 70, 24
120 - 129 CA: 183, 110, 59

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666, 1357, 1033

All-around athletes* : 113, 117, 38

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

strength >=10

Players between 21 and 24:

190 - 200 PA: 6, 5, 3
180 - 189 PA: 39, 29, 21
170 - 179 PA: 92, 110, 99
160 - 169 PA: 227, 189, 139

190 - 200 CA: 0, 3, 2
180 - 189 CA: 2, 3, 3
170 - 179 CA: 15, 25, 24
160 - 169 CA: 24, 65, 57
150 - 159 CA: 60, 156, 133
140 - 149 CA: 173, 280, 290
130 - 139 CA: 353, 540, 475
120 - 129 CA: 746, 821, 818

Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016, 1300, 811

All-around athletes* : 366, 331, 211

*Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

All players

190 - 200 CA: 1, 5, 4
180 - 189 CA: 18, 23, 28
170 - 179 CA: 68, 95, 105

International Caps

Players under 25 with international caps: 1273, 1280, 1168
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2, 13, 21
Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Amauri[31] - 175 CA

England
Players under 25 with international caps: 13, 7, 4
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 5
Fabrice Muamba[23] - 166 CA

Spain
Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 5, 4
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 7, 5
Bojan[20] - 177 CA

Italy
Players under 25 with international caps: 5, 9, 10
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1
Lucas[24] - 177 CA

France
Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 7, 6
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 2, 6
Jeremy Menez[24] - 176 CA

Germany
Players under 25 with international caps: 16, 8, 1
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 2
Kevin-Prince Boateng[24] - 169 CA

Holland
Players under 25 with international caps: 20, 10, 7
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 1
Ismael Aissati[22] - 167 CA

Brazil
Players under 25 with international caps: 21, 13, 9
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 4
Alexander Pato[21] - 181 CA

Argentina
Players under 25 with international caps: 18, 13, 8
Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1
Gonzalo Higuain[23] - 174 CA

Analysis

With the new format, we can see the degrade in youth development much more clearly. Youth are been regenerated with good PA, but the CA is just too low. There's only 95 under-21 with >= 120 CA.

Compare that to 302 in the first savegame. Physical attributes are also decreasing at an alarming rate. Perhaps development is lagging behind in the physical department.

International caps for talented youth are also dropping except for Italy. As a result, we are
seeing players who have high CA but no caps. Amauri still has not been capped despite having over 175 CA for two years now. Meanwhile, Pato at 181 CA has not been capped. But he's still young and hopefully will be on the national team soon.

retired_cnaisnice

The results for the first 4 years are interesting. Youth definitely do not develop as fast as FM07. We should keep an eye on the CA for "all players". While as FM07 players stop developing at 24, I have a feeling that FM08 players continue to develop even at older ages.

I'll continue this tomorrow. It takes a couple of hours to process a season. If there's anything else you guys want me to track, feel free to ask.

retired_pennyyoung

this is i think a good thing, ask ferguson.. youth development should be done carefully, or it just won't work out right.

retired_katysue

SI just mess the youth development up...
it don't have any problem in previous version